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Air cargo demand rises above pre-pandemic levels in February

IATA released data for February 2023 global air cargo markets showing that air cargo demand rose above pre-pandemic levels. 
air cargo, airplane

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported that the global demand for air cargo rose above pre-pandemic levels in February 2023. This is a significant improvement and the first time in eight months that air cargo has surpassed pre-pandemic levels.

The data shows that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), fell by 7.5% compared to February 2022, which is half the rate of annual decline seen in the previous two months. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), was up 8.6% compared to February 2022, reflecting the addition of belly capacity as the passenger side of the business continues to recover.

The global new export orders component of the manufacturing PMI, which is a leading indicator of cargo demand, continued to increase in February. The PMI level in China surpassed the critical 50-mark indicating that demand for manufactured goods from the world’s largest export economy is growing.

Global goods trade decreased by 1.5% in January, but this was a slower rate of decline than the previous month. The Consumer Price Index for G7 countries also decreased from 6.7% in January to 6.4% in February, and inflation in producer (input) prices reduced by 2.2 percentage points to 9.6% in December (last available data).

In terms of regional performance, Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes decrease by 6.0% in February 2023 compared to the same month in 2022. This was a significant improvement in performance compared to January (-19.0%). North American carriers posted a 3.2% decrease in cargo volumes in February 2023 compared to the same month in 2022.

European carriers saw the weakest performance of all regions with a 15.3% decrease in cargo volumes in February 2023 compared to the same month in 2022, while Middle Eastern carriers experienced an 8.1% year-on-year decrease in cargo volumes in February 2023. Latin American carriers reported a 2.7% decrease in cargo volumes in February 2023 compared to February 2022.

The story of air cargo in February is one of slowing declines. Year-on-year demand fell by 7.5%. That’s half the rate of decline experienced in January. This shifting of gears was sufficient to boost the overall industry into positive territory (+2.9%) compared to pre-pandemic levels.

An optimistic eye could see the start of an improvement trend that leads to market stabilization and a return to more normal demand patterns after dramatic ups-and-downs in recent years.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General
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